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Analysis: Can Poland’s election postponement assist the resistance?

Roman Pieńkowski, is an affable, vibrant personality, who’s a little celebrity with his acquaintances.

Why? His store in central Warsaw was promoting a number of their city’s most beautiful flowers for the best aspect of 100 decades. The store has lived World War II and the Communist era however, the current coronavirus lockdown has become the biggest challenge nonetheless.

“In March it had been catastrophic, my earnings were 200-300 zloty each day,” he advised me. “It did not cover my lease, I was going to shut down the store, I will finally have to wait and see what happens.”

Happily, he’d reopen and following a Facebook appeal, his loyal clients shortly started forming queues outside.

However, for most of the companies which did reopen, many just haven’t. Poland is staring its first recession in 30 decades. It’s the only nation in the EU to not observe that a quarter of negative growth since 1992.

And therefore it is not a surprise that the market is your number one concern among Republicans heading to the polls this Sunday, but it’s far from the only one.

Officially, 11 candidates are fighting it out in the initial round of the presidential election, however, this has turned into a two-horse race between involving the incumbent Andrzej Duda along with also the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski. Neither is very likely to acquire over 50 percent in the first round, meaning that a run-off at mid-July – with present polls indicating it is too close to predict.

What a comparison to a month or two back if Duda was riding high in the surveys and seemed like he was likely to triumph in that round. This was before the first vote was postponed throughout the pandemic. Since that time, support has his competitors have gained ground.

“You can observe that President Duda is anxious. “So, now Andrzej Duda is appearing backward. And also you will see it in every movement he makes and at each communication from him which he is quite much anchored before success, at the previous achievements of his camp and he also does not seem very much into the future and he also does not supply the concept of hope and shift he had to signify in prior elections.”

Duda isn’t a member of a political party – that he can not be president but he had been a member of this Law and Justice Party, which is presently in government. They also have aligned themselves to President Donald Trump, together with Duda creating a surprise and contentious visit to The White House this week at the hope of fostering his service. It had been the two leaders’ 11th assembly as presidents.

It’s a strategy that has angered the resistance. Dariusz Rosati, Poland’s former foreign ministry, told me that the nation must pursue a double plan. “We must continue to have connections with the European Union and the United States. Our safety is based on two columns, NATO and the European Union, and this administration was engaged in a one-time policy that’s quite hazardous constantly. If you would like to stand on one leg this isn’t a very secure place,” he advised Euronews.

Controversy has also stalked the president with remarks made on the campaign trail earlier this month, where he promised the LGBT+ motion innovative ideas which are”more detrimental than communism” and, when asked, stated he agreed with the other conservative politician who said that”LGBT isn’t people, it is an ideology.” This has been roundly condemned by rivals and does not appear to have worked, even with much more conservative voters.