The 59-year-old leftist, who’s looking for a fourth term, nevertheless seems to lead in surveys. However, some polls say he is very likely to fall short of a first-round victory and might be exposed to a combined resistance in a December runoff.
Bolivia’s first indigenous president has been credited with pragmatic financial stewardship that disperse the Andean nation’s natural gas and mineral riches among the masses. But he has lost support among Republicans disappointed by corruption scandals affecting his government and his refusal to take a referendum on limiting presidential terms. Critics also accuse him with a delayed reaction to enormous forest fires this season they attribute on his drive to produce regions with slash-and-burn agriculture.
An Oct. 4-6 survey from the San Andres Greater University and other institutions revealed Morales seemingly leading his closest rival, former President Carlos Mesa, 32 percent to 27% going to the first round of voting, with the remainder split among other candidates.
That would establish a runoff, along with the survey revealed Morales and Mesa tied at just below 36% each in a yearlong race — with all the remainder of the surveyed saying that they were undecided, could toss a null ballot or falling to state a preference. The survey surveyed 14,420 people along with also the margin of error was 2.8 percentage points.
“It is certainly the closest elections and we are confronting the possibility that Morales could be conquered after 14 decades of government,” political analyst Jorge Dulón, stated.
Morales grew up as a llama shepherd from the Bolivian highlands and became renowned because the fiery leader of a coca growers’ union fighting US-backed tries to stifle the harvest, a gentle stimulant profoundly rooted in Bolivian culture but that can also be the raw material for cocaine.
“Provided that we are united, we will keep beating people who don’t adore the majority of people,” Morales said from the campaign trail this week speaking to the resistance.
Many Bolivians were angered by his decision to seek out another re-election even though a popular referendum that maintained term limitations. South America’s longest-serving present leader managed to conduct just for a Supreme Court judgment that determined that the limitations imposed his political faith.
“What has slowed his electricity is failing to honor the 2016 referendum that said no to his re-election,” Dulón explained.
Many young Bolivians also don’t have any recollection of a president apart from Morales, and a few say they are prepared for change despite years of political and economic stability.
Mesa, who was vice president took power when his predecessor resigned in 2003 amid massive protests, and resigned himself in 2005 amid renewed demonstrations directed by Morales.
Morales and Mesa shut their attempts Wednesday from La Paz and at the southern city of Santa Cruz, a bastion of their resistance. Neither is expected to acquire a majority in Congress, which might cause an impasse to the upcoming government.
While Morales has prevented the private corruption scandals which have tarred or toppled leaders in neighboring Argentina, Brazil and Peru, Human Rights Watch has accused his administration of undermining judicial independence by dismissing nearly 100 judges because of 2017. The team said the judges weren’t given any reason for the dismissals with a Magistrates Council dominated by allies of Morales.
“I am concerned about the day following the elections,” Stefan Duppel, the German ambassador to La Paz, stated recently. “There is a feeling of distrust and it is essential to ensure the elections are clean as you can.”