with Meteorologist Mitch Keegan

 

Catch my forecast with TJ & Lisa weekday AM's
And I chat LIVE Monday & Friday around 6:30!

 

 

Follow me on Twitter!          Find me on Facebook! 

Send me your comments/questions: tvkeegan@keyc.com 

 

Storm Spotter Training Schedule

 

Current Flood Forecast--Regular blog posts are below the flood forecast

Monitor river levels and forecasts, as well as much more!

Southern Minnesota Rivers

Northern Iowa River

Soutwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa Rivers

 

Updated 3/15 3:45 PM	Minnesota River at Henderson	Flood Warning
Current River Stage	Flood Stage	Forecast
730.82 feet	732 feet	Rise to 733.9 feet Saturday
	Minnesota River at Mankato	Flood Warning in effect
Current River Stage	Flood Stage	Forecast
15.38 feet	22 feet	Reach 21.8 feet Friday
	Minnesota River at New Ulm	Flood Warning in effect
Current River Stage	Flood Stage	Forecast
797.71 feet	796 feet	Rise to 799.9' Saturday
	Cottonwood River at New Ulm	Flood Warning in effect
Currently:  10.12 feet	Flood Stage: 11 feet	Forecast: 12.5 feet Wednesday
	East Fork Des Moines River at Algona	Flood Warning in effect
Current: 14.66 feet	Flood Stage: 14 feet	Forecast: 21.6 feet Saturday
	Des Moines River at Estherville	Flood Warning in effect
Current: 8.57 feet	Flood Stage: 7 feet	Forecast: 13.4 feet on Saturday
	Des Moines River at Emmetsburg	Flood Warning in effect
Current: 8.3 feet	Flood Stage: 10 feet	Forecast: 13.0 feet Friday
	Des Moines River at Jackson	Flood Warning in effect
Current: 9.49 feet	Flood Stage: 12 feet	Forecast: 13.6 feet Friday
	Des Moines River at Windom
Current: 18.28 feet	Flood Stage: 19 feet	No Forecast Available
	Redwood River at Redwood Falls	Flood Warning in effect
Current: 6.34 feet	Flood Stage: 6 feet	Forecast: Slowly Fall
	Little Sioux River at Milford	Flood Warning in effect
Current: 14.17 feet	Flood Stage: 12 feet	No Forecast Available
	Little Sioux River at Spencer	Flood Warning in effect
Current: 12.1	Flood Stage: 10 feet	Forecast: 14.5' Thursday

 

A deep snow pack that is now melting has a very high moisture content, between 2 and 6" of liquid water equivalent.  Now we've seen a lot of rain, upwards of 2" in some places.  Combine this with the melting snow, and areas rivers are now in line for some flooding over the next week to 2 weeks.  Flooding from ice jams is also of concern and this flood forecast from the NWS does not take that into account.  These numbers will change frequently, so stay tuned for the latest. 

Mankato prepared for Flooding on the Minnesota River

FEMA Flood Insurance

St. Peter Prepares for Possible Flooding

Rapidan Dam Ready for Rising Waters

Southern Minnesota Rivers

Northern Iowa Rivers

Soutwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa Rivers

 

 

Monday, March 15, 2010

 

The Minnesota River at Mankato has risen 7 feet since Friday and will continue to rise through the week, reaching just shy of flood stage, which is 22 feet.  Certainly areas not protected by the Flood Walls and Levees will see some flooding.

 

We'll stay dry today, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the middle to upper 40s.  A weak disturbance moves through tonight and into tomorrow, bringing the chance for some light rain.  That weak storm system will move this stagnant pattern out of here FINALLY, bringing some sunshine for Wednesday and Thursday with highs around 50.

 

Another storm system moves in for Friday and Saturday, bringing colder air and the chance for some rain and maybe even some snow on Saturday, which is ironic because Saturday is the first day of spring.  Spring officially begins at 12:32 on Saturday afternoon.

 

Friday, March 12, 2010

 

The Minnesota River in Mankato rose more than 2 feet in 21 hours, so you can see the power the rain and the snow melting are having.  It does take time for the water to get all the way into the river system, so flooding will be a concern for the next week or two.  And not just flooding of rivers, but I know some people are seeing water in their basements.  Some of us have seen more than an inch and a half of rain and in some spots, more than 2" of rain since it began on Tuesday.

 

More scattered showers are in the forecast for today and through Sunday.  The good news is that the rain is becoming more scattered.  We continue to keep fog around because of the melting snow. 

 

As we head into next week, the weather is looking a little better, with highs approaching 50 with mostly to partly sunny skies.  Our long range forecast models are hinting at the chance for some more rain and snow as we head towards next Friday, so it's something to certainly keep an eye on.

 

Thursday, March 11, 2010

 

As of 6:30 AM, we've picked up nearly .80" of rain since it began early Tuesday morning from this slow moving, never ending low pressure system.  This storm system that has been bringing us rain has been bringing severe weather well to our south, across Arkansas and Missouri.  There was also a report this morning of some thunder and lightning in Rochester.  As a warm front pushes in today, I wouldn't be surprised if there arerumbles of thunder around here as well.  That warm front will also help warm us into the middle 40s.

 

That's where our temperatures are going to stay right into the weekend.  This storm system is also becoming more sluggish to move out of here, meaning the clouds, fog and scattered showers now look to stick around into Sunday.  The increased chance for prolonged rain just means we'll have to keep an even closer eye on area rivers. 

We do already have flood warnings for the Des Moines River in Palo Alto and Emmet counties in Iowa as well as the East Fork Des Moines River in Kossuth county.  A comparison to show that the Minnesota River in Mankato is rising.  At 1 AM Wednesday, the river in Mankato was at 4.99'.  At 1 AM this morning, it was at 5.59 feet.  That's an increase in just over a half a foot in 24 hours.  Remember, it does take time for the water to make it into our rivers and streams, it isn't immediate, so we'll have to keep watching things even in the next week or two.  Esepcially as that deep snow pack continues to melt away over southwestern Minnesota.

 

The good news is as we head into next week, we do start to dry out and things are point to highs around 50.

 

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

 

As of 6 AM, we've picked up .60" of rain for the month, with half of that coming yesterday alone.  We keep the chance of rain in the forecast, right into Saturday.  Again, we'll see some dry periods but also some fairly soggy ones.  The fog will stick around as the snow continues to melt.  There is a dense fog advisory until 6 PM tonight.

 

Flooding continues to be a concern for area rivers, mainly the Minnesota and Des Moines Rivers, along with their tributaries.  The only flood warning we have right now is for the East Fork of the Des Moines River at Algona.  As of 6 AM, the river was just shy of 9 feet.  Flood stage is 14 feet.  The river is expected to rise above flood stage tomorrow and continue rising to almost 20 feet by next Tuesday.  At 16 feet, a large part of the agricultural land around the river becomes flooded.  When the river surpasses 18 feet, parts of Hwy. 169 and 18 become flooded.

 

Just of note, the Minnesota River at Mankato has risen half a foot since Sunday night, which was before the heavier rains started.  The Minnesota River at Henderson has risen a foot since Sunday.  At St. Peter, as of midnight, the river stage was 28.9 feet.  Record stage there is 34.4 feet.  We'll continue to keep an eye on river levels for the potential for flooding.

 

We dry out by Sunday and into next week, as our highs get close to 50 by the start of next week.

 

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

 

We're watching a slow moving low pressure system as it makes it's way into the midwest.  This storm system is going to become nearly stationary over Iowa, leaving us with the chance for rain starting today through Friday.

 

The low is going to become a cut-off low, meaning it is going to become cut-off from the jet stream, the strong winds in the upper atmosphere that move storm systems across the US.  The good news is that the storm will weaken as it stalls out, but that isn't going to stop it from bringing rain.

 

We're looking at the possibility of some heavy rainfall as well.  There is the potential for up to an inch of rain and maybe more in some spots.  One of our forecast models gives Mason City, Iowa (yes, I realize this is outside of our viewing area) 2" of rain by Friday.  This same model gives our viewing area between 1 and 1.5" of rain.  So, with the melting snow that has a lot of moisture content in it, as well as the potential for heavy rain.  Combine that with the frozen ground we have, that could spell some trouble when it comes to flooding.  This is a situation that is going to have to be watched closely.  Since the ground is frozen, there really isn't anywhere for the rain/melting snow to go, so it heads right into our rivers and streams.  The melting we saw last week as pretty much already saturated the ground.

 

Temperatures look to stay above average for the most part as we head into next week.  There's even a possibility of hitting 50 by next Thursday.

 

Monday, March 8, 2010

 

We saw .20" of rain on Saturday with a cloudy sky on Sunday.  We reached 45° for a high on Sunday, ending our stretch of days with temperatures under 40°.  The previous time was on December 1, when we reached 48°.  It'll be a quiet day weather-wise today, outside of some clouds and fog with highs around 40. 

 

A storm system will move in and stall out over the midwest through the week.  It will get cut off from the jet stream, which we can think of as the weather highway, the path storms take across the country.  As it stals out to our south, it will rotate pieces of energy and leave that chance for rain in the forecast through Friday.

 

With the melting snow, as highs stay in the 40s and lows stay above freezing AND the rain, we may have to keep an eye out for some minor flooding already.  Since the ground is frozen, the melting snow and rain can't soak in, so there's really not anywhere for the rain/melt to go.

 

By next weekend, we'll see quieter weather with highs in the middle to upper 40s.

 

Friday, March 5, 2010

Temperatures started the day about 20° warmer than they did yesterday.  Combine that with the sunshine today and lack of fog, that means a warmer afternoon.  It looks like we'll see highs around 40 today, which would be the first day at 40 or warmer since December 1st.  There are more 40s in the forecast into next week.

 

A low pressure system is moving out of the Rockies and will bring the slight chance for some freezing rain, but more and more it's looking mostly like rain.  In fact, with each new forecast model that comes in, the timing keeps slowing down.  So the best chance for any freezing rain will likely be after 3 AM and mostly in the western parts of our viewing area.  Otherwise expect mostly rain.  Our temperatures also will rise overnight, so that helps lessen the chance for freezing rain as well.  As some colder air wraps into the storm, some light snow is possible Saturday night. 

 

Sunday looks mostly cloudy with highs in the upper 30s.  We get back into the 40s as we head into next week, with lower to even middle 40s possible.

 

That storm system we've been watching for next week can't seem to keep up it's mind.  The main part of the storm will be to our south, but some northern lobes of energy will be around for us, so I have to leave the chance for some light rain in the forecast for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  As new information comes in, those chances may eventually be taken out all together.

 

Speaking of rain... or water, the latest flood outlook comes out late today.  I'll try to post some highlights, but will have all the full details here on Saturday and on News 12 at 6 & 10 on Saturday as well.  I'll also see you here on Sunday and into next week.  I just won't get off your TV screen :-)

 

Thursday, March 4, 2010

 

Our temperatures continue to trend upward and the sun continues to shine.  This nice stretch of weather has been ongoing for some time and it will continue into tomorrow as well.

 

The only problem is going to be fog, which at times will be quite dense.  But I did notice on my way in this morning that the trees have the frost in them again, which is a pretty sight.

 

Mostly sunny today with highs in the middle 30s and mid to upper 30s for tomorrow.  The weather does take a little more interesting turn overnight tomorrow night into Saturday morning, with some freezing rain possible.  Precipitation amounts are looking on the light side, but any amount of freezing rain creates problems.  We have had a lot of sunshine and dry pavement, so hopefully the sun has warmed the pavement enough so that icy roads won't be a huge problem.  By mid morning Saturday and into the afternoon, temperatures will be warm enough that it will be all rain.

 

Sunday looks dry with partly cloudy skies and highs around 40.  Our forecast models continue to keep flip-flopping around on the 2nd storm system we've been watching.  While the models have been pretty consistant, there is starting to be some recent trends in pushing the storm further south, decreasing our chances.  There haven't been enough model runs like this to jump on the bandwagon of taking all the precip out of the forecast, so for now, I'll just decrease the chance.  The other change is a trend in warmer temperatures, which I think we will all enjoy.  So, stay tuned and we'll continue to keep an eye on the forecast as we may have to end up taking the chances for precipitation for next week on Monday and Tuesday right out of the forecast.

 

Wednesday, March 3, 2010

 

The nice weather continues, with highs getting to the middle 30s for today, which is right around average for this time of the year.  As you drive around, you'll notice that the snow is starting to melt, especially around the edges of sidewalks and roadways.  The deeper snow pack is going to have a harder time in melting, as the snow tends to reflect the sun's energy.  This goes back to something we talked about in February, but it's such an interesting topic, I thought I'd cover it again.

 

The Twin Cities has seen high temperatures in the 40s, with yesterday's high in Minneapolis at 42.  While "the cities" were enjoying highs in the lower 40s, we were in the lower to middle 30s here in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.  So you may be asking, why the big difference in temperature in such a short distance?

 

Well, there are a couple of things that play into that.  The first is the obvious one, we have more snow on the ground here than they do in the metro, so a deeper snow cover means cooler air, in general.

 

  The other is the urban heat island effect.  The sun does not directly warm the air up, the ground does.  The heat energy from the sun hits the ground and warms it up.  The ground then in turn radiates energy that warms the air.  So, in the winter, a lot of the heat energy from the sun is reflected by the snow pack, making it hard for the air to warm up. 

 

So, with all the roads, parking lots, buildings, etc that can absorb energy and reflect it in the Twin Cities, the air there warms up much faster than it does around here, because our roads and buildings are much fewer and farther between. 

 

Other things can influence this as well, such as trees or forests.  This is just like in the summer, when you wear a black shirt, you feel a lot hotter a lot faster than you do if you wear a white shirt. 

 

That's why you might notice the snow is gone along those edges, because as the pavement heats up in the sunshine, the air around it warms, which then melts that snow.

 

We stay quiet through the end of the work week, before a 1-2 punch of low pressure moves for the weekend and into next week.  The first will bring a chance for some rain, some snow and maybe even some freezing rain late Friday into Saturday. 

 

Sunday is looking quiet with a high around 40, which would be the first day we see a high of 40° or warmer since December 1st, when we hit 48°.  That will be 96 days.  The second round moves in for Monday and Tuesday, bringing rain on Monday before changing to snow on Tuesday.

 

Both of these systems are something worth keeping an eye on.

 

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

 

Even though it's Tuesday, it will seem like Monday, at least weather-wise, with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures pretty close to where we were yesterday, in the lower to middle 30s.  We'll see a repeat performance of this each day, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the middle to upper 30s, to even near 40 by Friday. 

 

As we melt the snow, we'll see patchy fog each morning and as the temperatures get warmer, the fog will get thicker, as more moisture will be in the air.

 

A weak storm system will bring the chance for some rain and snow late on Friday into Saturday, with the best chance for snow late Friday night into early Saturday, then a chance for rain on Saturday.

We'll see a break on Sunday before a bigger and stronger storm moves in and lasts until Wednesday.  We'll see rain showers on Monday, before the temperature drops and all the precip changes to snow on Tuesday, with some light snow still possible on Wednesday.  This storm looks to bring a lot of moisture with it, so there is the potential for some heavy rain and yes some heavy wet snow too, so stay tuned!

 

Monday, March 1, 2010

 

Welcome to the first day of Meteorological Spring!  Wait, I thought spring began on March 20th.  Well, it does.  Huh?  In the meteorology world, we have our own way of keeping time, so why not seasons.  We lump them in groups of 3, so meteorological spring is March, April and May.  The official start of spring, when the vernal equinox is, occurs on March 20th at 12:32 PM.

 

We start the first week of March with a lot of sunshine and high temperatures getting into the 30s.  We'll add a few degrees each day, with highs getting into the middle 30s by later this week.

 

By Friday, we'll see a few more clouds and then late in the day, the chance for some light snow.  As temperatures warm up on Saturday, we'll see some rain mix in.  This first round of precipitation is looking fairly light, compared to what is coming as we head into Sunday and next week.

 

Another round of rain and snow or a mix of the 2 will come in later on Sunday and last into Monday and Tuesday, with some light snow looking possible on Wednesday.  So of our forecast models are hinting at the possibility of some thunder with this storm.  This is still a little ways out there, so it's certainly worth keeping an eye on.  Any heavy rain could spell some trouble with all the snow we have on the ground.

 

We saw 15" of snow in February, with the warmest days on the 4th and 5th with a high of 32° and our coldest high temperature was 12° on February 10th.  The coldest morning was on the 11th and 25th, when we hit -9 for lows.  Our warmest low, was on the 5th with 28. 

 

Over the weekend someone asked me if it was true that we're going to get 30 to 45" of snow in March.  I said huh?  They were referring to the Farmer's Almanac.  It's calling for a cold and snowy March.  But these first few days are certainly counter to their forecast.  The FA is calling for cold and snow from March 1 to 8.  While the FA can be a good tool, it's not always right, but, we'll see how March pans out!

 

Saturday, February 27, 2010

 

Lots of sunshine out there for us today and we'll continue that trend with mostly to partly sunny skies.  As our highs due continue to warm, we will see some melting from the strong sunshine. 

 

With that melting of snow, some patchy fog will be possible and it will be dense in some locations.  We'll warm a few degrees on Sunday, to near 30 after starting out in the single digits above zero.

 

Our temperatures will be a few degrees cooler by Monday, into the middle 20s.  We then will start to warm back into the lower 30s by the middle part of next week.  

 

Some middle 30s may be possible as we head toward the end of next week.  Our weather will stay quiet until late on Friday and into Saturday, when we bring the chance for some snow back into the forecast. 

 

For more on the earthquake in Chile and the potential for Tsunami waves, check out http://www.cbsnews.com

 

Friday, February 26, 2010

 

Temperatures yesterday were warmer than Wednesday and today will be warmer than yesterday, as our highs warm into the middle 20s.  We add a few degrees to each day.

 

We will see fog in the morning hours as the strong sunshine will melt the snow.  And that fog will be dense in some spots, with visibility down to near zero.  This goes to show you that tempertures don't have to get above freezing to melt the snow.

 

Our highs warm to around 30 by Sunday with some sun and clouds.  We'll be a few degrees cooler on Monday due to some extra clouds and we may squeeze out a few flurries, but the chances for that don't look that great.  We're back into the upper 20s to around 30 as we head toward mid-week next week.

 

Looking at the 10-Day Trend, we stay in the lower 30s and may see some light snow as we head toward the first weekend of March. 

 

The latest snow depth map for the state is out, and we're "winning" the race here in the southern part of the state, with some parts of southwestern Minnesota seeing 36" of snow on the ground.  Fairly odd that there is less snow on the ground in northern Minnesota than down in our neck of the woods. 

 

I can't forget that I have to work tomorrow!!  See you at 6 & 10 PM on Saturday!

 

Thursday, February 25, 2010

 

Even with the stronger February sunshine, high temperatures only reached around 10° yesterday.  We had north winds yesterday, pushing in the cool air and adding a chill to the air.  Today, our winds will come from a southerly direction and that means a warm source region for our air.  Our high temperatures will continue to warm as we head into the weekend and into next week because of that.

 

Look for highs in the middle to upper teens today and a mostly sunny sky.  Clouds will start to move in tonight and be with us as we head through the weekend.  We'll see mostly to partly sunny skies and a dry stretch, right into next week, so March is certainly coming in like a lamb this year.

 

I had a viewer call yesterday and ask how many times we've gotten to 32° or warmer since December 1st and the answer is, you don't need all your fingers to count them.  We've only had 8 days in Mankato where our high got to 32° or warmer.  Sure, we've had days with highs of 30 or 31, but not many over 32.  There were 3 in both December and January and 2 earlier this month.

 

Yesterday I recapped the flooding potential for this spring and talked about the deep snow pack.  Yes, there is between 16 and 24" or more of snow on the ground in our viewing area, and that's remarkable.  The other thing to note about it is the amount of water that is in the snow.  There is between 6 and 10 inches of water within that 16 to 24" of snow.  That's a lot of water just sitting on top of the ground, so that is why we are concerned about the potential for flooding.  So again, cross your fingers for a SLOW melt and not a lot of spring rain!

 

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

 

Yesterday's cold front brought a little bit of light snow, but the main problem it brought was the strong winds and much colder air.  The blowing snow yesterday caused some slippery spots and more drifts in the open areas.  The good news is that the winds won't be as strong today, but we all know it doesn't take very much wind to cause blowing snow.

 

High pressure will build in and that means quiet weather for us.  In fact, our forecast stays quiet through the next 7 days, with mostly to partly sunny skies.  We'll see another chilly morning tomorrow, but then it starts to warm up as we head into the weekend.

 

We'll be pack into the 20s by Friday and into the 30s next week.  In fact, look at the 10-Day Trend and even farther out, our highs will hover around 30 as we head into March and it looks like we stay quiet until later in the 2nd week of March.  For more on the latest outlook for the potential for spring flood, check out some highlights below.  The concern isn't just for rivers, but streams as well.  The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for March is an equal chance of seeing above or below average temperatures and precipitation.

Today is Nathan Harrington's last day at KEYC-TV.  He is trading in snowstorms and blizzards for warmer temperatures and hurricanes.  Nathan will be the weekend Meteorologist at WCTV in Tallahasee, which is about 2 hours away from where he calls home.  Nathan will be doing the weather in the morning and evenings on the weekends.  We are going to miss him and thank him for all he's done.  In the meantime, I'll be working Saturday's and Mark will work on Sunday's until someone new is hired.  So, I hope you don't get sick of me!! :-)

 

Latest Spring Flood Outlook from the National Weather Service

 

 

==Moderate flooding possible in New Ulm from both the Minnesota and Cottonwood Rivers

 

==Flood outlook: NWS: 66% chance of river in Mankato reaching 22 ft, 30% chance of 25 ft and 9% chance of reaching 28.5 ft

 

==Flood outlook: Dike/Flood wall patroling begins in Mankato at 22 ft, hwy 169 starts to see flooding in spots at 25 ft and higher

 

==Flood outlook New Ulm: NWS says 99% chance MN River reaches 795 ft; 5% chance it reaches 810

 

==Flood outlook Henderson: 90-99% chance of flooding along river and Hwys 19 and 93

 

== Henderson Flood outlook: 70% chance Hwy. 93 would have to be closed and floodwall gates to be shut

 

==River flooding not the only concern. Culverts, streams also a concern. Minnesota River at Mankato has a 65% chance of reaching flood stage, 22 ft.  Flooding causes: deep snow pack, high snow moisture content fall rains Only questions remaining: spring rain amounts & melt rate

==Des Moines River @ Jackson: 86% chance of minor flooding, 49% chance of moderate flooding

 

==Flood stage in Jackson is 12 ft. 80% chance the river will go over flood stage

 

== 95 to 98% chance of both minor and moderate flooding of the Des Moines River in Estherville, Emmetsburg and Algona (east fork)

 

Next flood outlook will be released March 5th.

 

Friday, February 19, 2010

 

  Over the past few days, the Twin Cities has seen high temperatures go above average.  In fact yesterday, the high in Minneapolis was 37.  While "the cities" were enjoying highs close to 40, we were in the lower to middle 20s here in southern Minnesota and northern Iowa.  So you may be asking, why the big difference in temperature in such a short distance?

 

Well, there are a couple of things that play into that.  The first is the obvious one, we have more snow on the ground here in southern Minnesota than they do in the metro, so a deeper snow cover means cooler air, in general.

 

  The other is the urban heat island effect.  The sun does not directly warm the air up, the ground does.  Huh?  The heat energy from the sun hits the ground and warms it up.  The ground then in turn radiates energy that warms the air.  So, in the winter, a lot of the heat energy from the sun is reflected by the snow pack, making it hard for the air to warm up. 

 

So, with all the roads, parking lots, buildings, etc that can absorb energy and reflect it in the Twin Cities, the air there warms up much faster than it does around here, because our roads and buildings are much fewer and farther between. 

 

Other things can influence this as well, such as trees or forests.  This is just like in the summer, when you wear a black shirt, you feel a lot hotter a lot faster than you do if you wear a white shirt. 

 

Thursday, February 18, 2010

 

For the past few days, the forecast models have been hinting at the chance for some snow around here on Sunday and again late Monday into Tuesday.  Well, today, there is a little bit more agreement between all our forecast models, and that makes it a little easie and me a little more confident on what to put in the forecast for the weekend.. 

We'll see some cloud cover over the weekend, with mostly cloudy skies and the chance for some flurries.  The main storm track is going to be to our south, keeping the accumulating snows across Iowa and Missouri and then headed to the East Coast.

 

As we look a little further out though, our long range model looking into the first week of February look a little more active.  From midnight Thursday the 25th to Midnight on Friday, March 5th, the model gives us 1.34" of precipitation.  It also hints at temperatures near the freezing mark. 

 

While it's still WAY to early to buy into this or even talk about if it will be snow or ice, it does place the thought in the back of my mind on a typical March storm, of heavy, wet snow.  This is something to certainly keep an eye on.  And again, this is a LONG way out, so there will certainly be changes in the model as we get closer. 

 

I've included a look at that time period.  The times are listed in Universal Time, so think military time, but subtract 6 hours.  So when it says Sunday 2/28 18z, that's Sunday at noon.

 

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

 

Yesterday we talked about the depth of the snowpack on the ground.  Today, I'm revisiting the ranking of our snowfall to the last 10 years.  After our current snowfall of 56.5", the next highest is 50" from the winter of 2006-2007.  I know it seems like I'm driving this into the ground, but it's certainly notable that we're seeing a lot of snowfall.  Again, the record amount of snow since 1984 is 65.3" from the winter of 1991-1992. 

 

So, let's look at the temperatures from March of 2007.  There were 2 days in the 70s for highs, in fact those were record highs and 1 day we hit 79.  There were 2 days with highs in the 60s and 6 days in the 50's.  We only had 4 days with highs in the teens and 20s and 15 days in the 30s and 40s. 

 

What does this mean for our upcoming March.  Well, nothing concrete, but even with a lot of snow that year, we still had a warm March.  The Climate Prediction Center still has us in above average temperatures for March and April, so hopefully that comes true!  Spring begins March 20th at 12:30 PM.

 

We stay snow-free until Sunday and again late Monday into Tuesday and even at this point, these 2 storm system don't look that impressive!

 

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

 

Another 2" of snow on the ground in Mankato, pushing our seasonal snowfall to 56.5", ever so closer to the record of just over 65".  The good news... no snow in the 7-day forecast for the next few days.  High pressure will keep us quiet until Sunday, when the chance for snow returns to the forecast as a storm system moves into the midwest.

 

High temperatures will be in the 20s, with middle to upper 20s through Thursday and then lower 20s as we head into the weekend, which is on the cool side of average.  Our average high temperature is around 32°.

 

So, speaking of the sunshine, sunset tonight is at 5:47.  We've gained 41 minutes of daylight since February 1st.  We gain about 3 minutes each day.  This increase in daylight helps our daily high temperatures warm up.

 

The state climatologist released a map of snow on the ground.  Right now our viewing area is seeing between 18 and 24" of snow on the ground.  As far as our snowfall ranking, we're seeing an above average snowfall, ranking in the 80 to 95 percentile of snowfalls as of February 11.  Spring is only 31 days away, beginning at 12:32 on March 20th.

 

Monday, February 15, 2010

 

This is our 4th Monday in a row of dealing with snow and slick roads in the morning.  And again, it's not a lot of snow, but the wind that is causing the main problems with blowing and drifiting.  Most snowfall reports are around an inch or two.  Blowing snow will be causing problems through tonight and even into tomorrow.  The reason:  Low pressure brings the snow, then high pressure quickly builds in behind it.  These to areas of different air pressure put a squeeze on the atmosphere, causing the stronger winds.

 

The good news, after today,the rest of the week looks quiet.  We'll see mostly sunny skies right into the upcoming weekend.  At least that is the way it looks now.  There is a weak storm system that is set to move into the Midwest on Friday.  Right now, it looks like it will go well to our West and South, but that can change, so that's something to keep an eye on.  If the forecast changes, I'll be sure to let you know.  If that storm stays away, we'll be quiet until the middle part of next week, when there's a chance for some snow.

 

As far as temperatures go, we'll be in the lower to middle 20s this week.  Average high temperatures are in the lower 30s, so we are on the cool side.

 

Seasonal Snowfall:  55.5"
15 Year Average (1984-2000): 41.3"
Record: 65.3" Winter of 1991-92

 

Friday, February 12, 2010

 

We saw about an inch of accumulation of snow from late yesterday through the overnight hours.  More snow is on the way, with the higher totals being in the western parts of our viewing area. 

 

Today, look for partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs around 20, with lows around 12 tonight and a mostly cloudy sky.  Our temps pretty much stay in the lower 20s.

 

The bulk of the snow accumulation will fall across the eastern part of the Dakotas and into western Iowa as the storm moves east.  The main problem with this next storm is going to be the wind, as they pick up overnight Saturday into Sunday, causing blowing and drifting snow.

 

This next storm moves in later tomorrow, mainly after noon and lasts through midday Sunday.  Some light snow is possible on Monday (President's Day) as another lobe of energy swings back through on the backside of the storm.

 

Then it looks a little quieter as we move into next week, with some sunshine and temps in the lower 20s.  Our average high this time of the year is around 30, so we are going to be a little below average.

 

Thursday, February 11, 2010

 

It was certainly nice to see the sunshine yesterday, and even though it wasn't that warm outside, the sun made it feel just a little bit better.  Hopefully you enjoyed that sunshine, because we have more clouds in the forecast for today.  And with some of those clouds, some flurries are possible.  Highs will warm into the upper teens close to 20° today thanks to winds out of the south.

 

A little clipper system moves in tonight and into tomorrow, bringing the chance for some light snow.  We're not looking for a lot of accumulation from this, around 1".  The good news is that temperatures will be into the 20s for Friday and into the weekend.

 

A second storm system will bring the chance for some more snow Saturday and Sunday, with some lingering light snow possible on Monday.  This second storm is looking a little more potent and could bring another 1-4" and some wind, so blowing snow may become a problem once again.

 

We've all been talking about how this winter seems much snowier and it has been.  We've picked up 53" of snow for the season and have the chance for as much as 5" more this week.  The snowiest winter since 1984?  The winter of 1991-92, with 65.3" of snow.  And yes, that's the year with the infamous Halloween Blizzard.

 

 Wednesday, February 10, 2010

 

The snow has stopped and it's nice to finally see the sunshine.  High pressure will keep our weather quiet for today and tonight.  Temperatures started out below zero this morning, with some of us even in the teens below zero.  Even though the sunshine is nice, since we are starting out so cold, highs will only warm into the lower teens.  We go below zero once again tonight, but then we start to warm back up.

 

We'll be close to 20 for Thursday with a mostly to partly sunny sky.  Then, we get ready for some more snow, but temperatures will be closer to average.

 

We have a shot for another inch or so of snow late Thursday night into Friday.  Then, another storm system, which is looking a lot like the one we just had moves in for very late Friday into Saturday.  While it's still a bit early to tell, right now it looks like we could see another 1-3", maybe up to 4" in some spots.

 

Resident of Illinois were shaken from their slumber this morning, as a earthquake, a 3.8 on the Richter Scale, shook just northeast of DeKalb, IL, which is just west-northwest of Chicago.  The earthquake shook just before 4 AM.  The National Weather Service reports people as far west as Cedar Rapids and Iowa City Iowa felt it.  Click here for more on the earthquake.

 

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

 

This storm has brought us (here at KEYC) another 8" of snow since Sunday and another 1 to 2" of snow is possible today with light snow lingering as this low pressure system moves away.  The bigger problem today, is going to be the winds, causing blowing and drifting of snow.  That will be a problem tonight and even into parts of tomorrow.

 

This storm is now headed to the East Coast, and will bring another 1 to 2 FEET of snow, on top of the 1 to 2 feet they saw over the weekend.

 

We'll see a cool day tomorrow, with highs in the teens.  Lows will dip to around 0 tonight and will go below zero for all of us tomorrow night.  This is going to be a short lived cold blast, with temperatures getting back into the 20s as we head into the end of the week and into the weekend.

 

A little clipper brings the chance for some snow on Friday.

 

Speaking of snow, we've seen 53" of snow so far this season in Mankato.  The 15 year average is 41.3", so that's over 11" above average and we're not done, as we can get big snows even into March and April. 

 

Monday, February 8, 2010--updated 11:00 AM

 

We saw between 2 and 4" of snow Sunday and overnight with more on the way.  A low pressure system is sliding out of Canada and is merging with a low pressure system with origins in the Pacific.  These two storm system's energy and moisture will combine, bringing prolonged snow and high accumulation, along with some gusty wind.

 

By the time all is said and done late on Tuesday, we're looking for 5-9" of accumulaiton, with some higher totals up to 12" possible.  This is for snow from Sunday through Tuesday.  We will certainly see some periods of ligher snow, but also periods of heavy snow. 

The other problem with this storm is going to be the wind.  Yesterday, driving between Eagle Lake and Mankato, I noticed some blowing snow, and the winds were only 10-15 mph and that was causing poor visibility and road conditions.  As our winds pick-up to 20 to 30 MPH this afternoon, blowing snow WILL cause a huge problem with visibility, road conditions and certainly some roads drifting shut.  The winds will stay breezy even into Wednesday, so this storm will cause problems even after the snow stops.

 

After this storm moves out, we see quiet conditions set in for the rest of the week.  With the new snow and the cold Canadian air settling in behind it, highs will be in the teens with some lows going below zero.  Temperatures moderate as we head towards the weekend.

 

Sunday, February 7, 2010

 

The opening act of our upcoming winter storm dropped about an inch of snow on us this morning and afternoon.  More is to come over the next 36 hours or so.  Snow is likely to resume later tonight and into the overnight hours.  2-4 inches of snow is expected before midday on Monday.  After the midday hour tomorrow is when we will see the most accumulating snowfall.  4-7 inches of new snow is expected during the P.M. hours on Monday. 

 

We will see some wind pickup during that time, so blowing snow will be a problem, especially in the open areas in our viewing area.  During the overnight on Monday and Tuesday morning, expect winds to increase even more with the chance to see another 1-2 inches of new snowfall. So the most dangerous travel times will be during the early morning and afternoon on Tuesday. 

 

All told, we could see 8-12" of new snow in the viewing area, with isolated higher amounts, up to around 14 inches. 

 

Please stay with KEYC for important updates regarding this winter storm.  I'll see you tomorrow morning with much more.

 

Friday, February 5, 2010

 

We saw almost everything yesterday except the kitchen sink, with freezing drizzle, sleet, snow and even some rain.  A lot of the moisture from the storm has been eaten up by the branch of the storm that is headed for the east coast, bringing the chance for a foot of snow or more in some spots along the eastern seaboard. 

 

Some light snow is still possible for today and into tonight, with some minor accumulation still possible.  Most of the accumulation will be in southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa.  Overall, 1-3" of accumulation is still possible. 

 

Another storm system will move out of Canada, bringing more chances for accumulation of snow Sunday and Monday, with some light snow still possible Tuesday.  At this time, it looks like another 2-4" is possible.

 

Highs today will be in the lower 30s and in the middle 20s for Saturday.  Any light snow should end by midday. 

 

Temperatures fall into the teens as we head into next week.  As I mentioned, the storm sytstem moving in for Sunday and Monday is moving out of Canada.  It will bring some cooler air with it, so again expect highs in the teens.

 

Today is National Weatherperson's Day.  It's in honor of the birth in 1744 of Dr. John Jeffries.  Jeffries is known for taking some of the first weather observations in the United States from 1774 to 1816 in Boston.  He also took weather observations in a balloon.

 

Thursday, February 4, 2010

 

We escaped most of the freezing drizzle overnight, but there is still the possibility for freezing drizzle today, before snow starts to develop as we head into the afternoon.  A mix of light snow, freezing drizzle/fog/mist is falling already this morning.  A low pressure system is moving out of the Rockies and will bring that chance for snow.  A second low pressure system will move across the southern US and move into the southeastern US.  These 2 storms will eventually merge and move up the eastern seaboard.

 

Highs today will be in the lower 30s and that's also in the forecast for tomorrow.  Then colder air starts to move in for the second half of the weekend and into next week.

 

The snow will start this afternoon and continue into Friday.  Some light snow is still possible as the storm system exits on Saturday.  We're looking for 2 to 5" of snow from this storm.

 

Another clipper system moves in as we head into Sunday and Monday, bringing the possibility for some more accumulation.

 

The National Weather Service is watching for the potential for some flooding this spring.  They have issued an outlook for the possibility of spring floods and currently say that the Minnesota River has a slightly to much above normal chance of spring flooding.  They are pointing to the above normal precipitation we saw in October.  And we've also seen a lot of snowfall, with a high water content.  Our snow to water equivalent is between 3 and 5". 

We will have to watch the progression of our snowmelt.  If it's a fast one, from a rapid warm up or from a lot of rain, that would increase the threat of flooding.  Obviously, if we see more heavy snowfall, that will impact our chances as well. 

 

I'm not trying to cause panic about widespread flooding this spring, but just want to place the thought in the back of your mind that flooding is a possiblity this spring.  As more information comes along, I'll pass it along.  Another reminder: a typical homeowners or renters insurance policy doesn't cover flooding (ie water that comes in from outside the home) so a flood insurance policy would be needed and those don't kick in for 30 days after they are written.

 

 

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

 

You can consider today the last quiet day for a few days.  We'll see mostly to partly sunny skies and highs around 20.  A push of some warmer air in the atmosphere and just enough moisture around will bring the chance for some patchy freezing drizzle tonight and into Thursday.  It doesn't look like we'll see a lot of accumulation of ice from the freezing drizzle. 

 

Then the bigger part of the storm starts to move in, bringing snow Thursday night into Friday, with some light snow left over on Saturday.  Accumulation of snow is looking likely, in that 2 to 4 inch range.  As this is a bigger storm system, some light snow showers are still possible on Saturday and Sunday.

 

This storm will pull in some colder air.  Highs on Thursday will be around 30 for Thursday.  Then we fall into the 20s for Friday and Saturday.  The colder air starts arriving on Sunday and into next week, with highs going back into the teens.  One of our long range forecast models hints at highs in the single digits as we head into next week.  I'm not quite ready to jump on that bandwagon yet, but it's something to keep in mind as some adjustments may be needed to the forecast.

 

So, it seems like we've been seeing a lot of snow this year.  I've been crunching the numbers and have included that today.  I'm looking at seasonal snowfall, so for example, October 2001 to April 2002.  Over the past few years, we've seen some light snowfall years and some heavy snowfall.  The heaviest was 2006/2007 with 50" of snow.  So far this season, we've seen 43.5" of snow, and we have the rest of this month and all of March and April to go yet.

 

Yesterday, I talked about the temperature outlook suggesting above average temperatures for February through April.  Another thing to think about for spring, is the possibility of flooding. 

 

The National Weather Service is watching for the potential for some flooding this spring.  They have issued an outlook for the possibility of spring floods and currently say that the Minnesota River has a slightly to much above normal chance of spring flooding.  They are pointing to the above normal precipitation we saw in October.  And we've also seen a lot of snowfall, with a high water content.  Our snow to water equivalent is between 3 and 5". 

We will have to watch the progression of our snowmelt.  If it's a fast one, from a rapid warm up or from a lot of rain, that would increase the threat of flooding.  Obviously, if we see more heavy snowfall, that will impact our chances as well. 

 

I'm not trying to cause panic about widespread flooding this spring, but just want to place the thought in the back of your mind that flooding is a possiblity this spring.  As more information comes along, I'll pass it along.  Another reminder: a typical homeowners or renters insurance policy doesn't cover flooding (ie water that comes in from outside the home) so a flood insurance policy would be needed and those don't kick in for 30 days after they are written.

 

Tuesday, February 2, 2010

 

Happy Groundhog Day!  And our furry little friend Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow this morning and that means 6 more weeks of winter.  I didn't see my shadow, but I can tell you, Spring will start on March 20th at 11:32 AM, because that's the vernal equinox.  Might have to watch Groundhog Day with Bill Murray today.  And apparently Phil isn't the only prognosticating rodent.  There were 17 forecasts made last year by groundhogs.  Check this out! 

 

We saw between 1 and 3 inches of snow yesterday and into the early morning hours.  Some flurries will be possible today, otherwise we'll see mostly cloudy skies and highs in the upper teens to around 20. 

 

We'll warm up a few more degrees for tomorrow, with partly to mostly cloudy skies and highs in the middle 20s.

 

Another storm system will move in on Thursday, bringing the chance for some snow and freezing drizzle.  As colder air gets wrapped into the storm later on Thursday and Friday, the precipitation will change over to all snow. 

 

Light snow chances linger into the weekend.

 

High temperatures on Thursday will be around 30 and again, as that colder air gets wrapped into the storm, highs will drop into the lower to middle 20s.  I've included the 3 month temperature outlook from the climate predicition center.  We have between a 33 and 40% chance of seeing above average tempertures in February, March and April.

 

Monday, February 1, 2010

 

A low pressure system will bring some light snowfall accumulation to us today and into early tonight.  It's not going to be a lot of snow, around 1-3", with some areas seeing up to 4" along the I-90 corridor and into northwestern Iowa.  Winds don't look to be too strong with this storm, so major blowing snow isn't likely, but some blowing snow is certainly possible in open areas.

 

High temperatures today and tomorrow will be in the teens, which is still below average, but as we head into Wednesday and into the weekend, our highs will warm to around average, which is in the middle 20s.

 

Another storm system brings the chance for some snow on Thursday, Friday and into Saturday.

 

January was a chilly month.  Our coldest morning low was on the 2nd, with a record low of -27°.  In fact, we set record lows the first 4 days of January.  Our warmest high temperature was on the 23rd and 24th when we hit 36°.  The coldest high temperature was on the 2nd, when we only reached -9 for a high. 

 

We only saw 3 days with high temperatures above freezing and 6 days with highs of zero or colder.  We ended January with 7.5" of new snowfall.  That brings our seasonal snowfall, from October 1 to now to 41.5"

 

Friday, January 29, 2010

 

Lows around the double digits below zero this morning, but the good news is that the wind chills aren't so bad, because the winds are fairly calm.  Highs will warm into the single digits above zero with lots of sunshine.  We continue a warm up into the weekend, with highs back into the teens and then we head into the 20s and 30s as we move into next week.

 

There is a chance for some light snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Right now, it looks like a few inches are possible, 2-3" maybe up to 4" in some spots.

 

A couple things of note in the sky for tonight.  A little beyond the weahter for you.  The moon is going to be full tonight, but it's going to be the largest and brightest full moon of the year.  The moon's orbit around the Earth is shaped like an ellipse.  Right now, it's at the point in it's orbit when it's closest to Earth, called Perigee.  It will be 14% wider and 30% brighter than any other full moon this year.

 

Along with the moon, you'll also be able to see Mars.  Mars will rise in the east around sunset and travel across the sky, quiet close to the moon.  For more on the full moon and on Mars, check out this website.

 

Thursday, January 28, 2010

 

Hard to believe the first month of 2010 is almost over and that first month is going to end of a chilly note, with highs only in the single digits for today and tomorrow.  With the breezes we have, it's going to feel like the teens to 20s below zero.  Overnight lows will dip into the single digits to near 10 below.

 

A large high pressure system is keeping our weather quiet, while to our south, across Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and into the southeast, a big storm is moving through, bringing rain and snow.  I don't know about you, but I'll trade the cold for more snow.

 

Temperatures start to warm as we head into the weekend, back into the teens and then we warm into the 20s and 30s for the first week of February.

 

There is the chance for some snow on Monday and Tuesday, but at this time it's looking fairly light.

 

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

 

Not as cold this morning as first thought because some clouds moved in overnight, acted like a blanket and kept us a little warmer.  A weak cold front will move through today.  It will pick-up our winds and will also spark some snow showers, mainly to our east, but some flurries are certainly possible in our area.  Our highs today will be around 10°, but with winds gusting to 30 mph, it will feel like the teens below zero.

Tonight, we have a good shot at going below zero, with more cold air pouring in behind today's weak cold front.  Lows will bottom out around -5, but with the winds still gusty, wind chills will make it feel like the -20s.

 

Single digit highs will be around for Thursday before we start a slow warming trend.  We'll be back into the teens as we head into the weekend and then the 20s and 30s next week.

 

January is going to end just as it started, on a chilly note.  February starts with the chance for some snow.

 

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

 

Well, we didn't get that much snow, but man, did it cause some problems.  Snowfall amounts were generally 2" or less, but you wouldn't be able to really tell because it was blowing everywhere on those gusts up to 50 mph.  I don't ever recall our entire viewing area being under a blizzard warning all at once, with schools closing and roads closed.  Even my drive home early yesterday afternoon in the Mankato area was slow with visibility down to a few hundred feet at times.

 

The winds aren't as strong today, but with gusts to 30 mph, blowing snow will still be a problem, especially in the open areas.  We'll see mostly to partly sunny skies and highs around 10.  Tonight, some clouds will stick around, with lows around 0.  Even with the wind gusts today and into tonight, wind chills will dip to around -20.

 

Our weather stays quiet through the rest of the week, with mostly sunny skies, but our high temperatures are going to be going well below average.  Our average high for today is 23.  Our highs by Thursday and Friday will only be in the single digits above zero, with lows going to as cold as -10.

 

We start a warm-up back closer to average as we head into the weekend, with highs back into the teens on Saturday and the 20s by Sunday and into next week.

 

We're still looking at the chance for some snow as we head into next week.  You can see that and more in the 10-Day Trend.

 

If you've signed up for our free school closings emails, you'll notice everytime there is a change, you will get a new email.  For example, if your school announces 2 hours late, you'll get an email.  Then if they add something like No Morning Preschool, you'll get another one.  Just a heads up, incase it gets overwhelming.  And of course, you'd get another if they change to being closed.  If you would like to do so and haven't, you can sign-up for those free alerts by heading here.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Monday, January 25, 2010

 

Everything that turned slushy from the rains on Saturday has frozen back over, as our temperatures have fallen back below freezing.  We picked up just shy of .60" of rain on Saturday, helping melt snow, but all that melt is now ice.  Now the back side of the storm is moving through, bringing light snow and strong winds.

 

We have a wind advisory until midnight as winds may gust up to 50 mph at times.  We have a Blizzard Warning for the entire viewing area through tonight, for the light snow, but also the blowing snow that we are going to see, which will reduce visibility, especially in the open areas, to just a few feet.  The northerly winds are bringing in much colder air for the week.

 

Our temperatures will fall throughout the day today, with our high set at midnight of 28°.  We'll go just below zero tonight, with a low around -2. 

 

Our highs will stay in the single digits and teens above zero and lows in the single digits below zero for the week ahead. 

 

By the weekend, we'll be back into the teens by Saturday, and into the 20s by Sunday.  The 10-Day Trend looks like it has some 30s in store as we head into February.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Friday, January 22, 2010--updated 11:45 AM

 

Review a chat from earlier on the upcoming storm.  A regular, full blog post is below. 

 

We'll keep the chance for freezing drizzle in the forecast again today, ahead of our next storm that moves in later today, into tonight and the weekend.  Highs today will top out just above freezing as the winds start to pick-up as the storm system approaches.

 

Later in the afternoon, after 2 oe 3, some freezing rain and sleet will start in the southwestern part of Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, then will overspread the rest of the viewing area through Friday evening and overnight hours.  The freezing rain and sleet will stick around through Saturday morning before changing over to rain, as temperatures warm above freezing and into the middle to upper 30s for highs.

 

Saturday night, the rain will start ot mix with snow as colder air gets wrapped into the storm system, all throughout the atmosphere, helping that rain change to snow.  It will stay all snow for Sunday and into Monday.

 

Wind is also going to be a problem with the storm.  Winds will gust upwards of 30 to 40 mph.  So, any ice accumulation on power lines will likely cause problems, ie power outages.

 

Accumulation of ice and snow is looking likely this weekend.  Some of us will see between a tenth and a quarter of an inch of ice (0.10" to 0.25") and then we'll see some rain, then a transition to snow, where we could pick up 1 to 5" of snow on top of the ice, with the higher snowfall totals of 2-4" in our western counties and less to the east, with 1-3" possible. 

 

The models are starting to wrap in some warmer air, which would keep more of the precipitation in the form of rain compared to freezing rain or sleet.  This scenario would certainly keep our chances for ice and snow accumulation down, so the temperature profile in the atmosphere as we move into the weekend is going to be very important.  Even if we see more rain, it will still cause problems.  A lot of storm sewers are blocked with snow and ice, so the rain would pond up and as temperatures drop into next week, freeze and become ice.  Regardless of what type of precip we see, there will be travel problems.

 

As we head into next week, our temperatures cool below average, into the teens with lows in the single digits.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Thursday, January 21, 2010

 

We can thank a dry push of air yesterday stopped most of our precipitation, with just some freezing drizzle late yesterday.  We'll keep the chance for freezing drizzle in the forecast for today and tonight, as there is just enough moisture around to cause it and create some slippery spots.  The main roads are mainly wet, it's the side roads, parking lots, sidewalks that are going to be the slickest.  Highs today will top out in the lower 30s.

 

Along with the chance for some freezing drizzle tonight, we'll see the chance for some flurries with a low in the middle 20s.

 

Friday will bring a few quiet hours before another storm moves in for the weekend, causing a big headache, not only for travel but for forecasting.  A Winter Storm Watch is already in effect for southwestern Minnesota for Friday into Sunday.  It's likely that more advisories/watches/warnings will be issued for the rest of the viewing area.

 

Later in the afternoon on Friday, some freezing rain and sleet will start in the southwestern part of Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, then will overspread the rest of the viewing area through Friday evening and overnight hours.  The freezing rain and sleet will stick around through Saturday morning before changing over to rain, as temperatures warm above freezing and into the middle 30s for highs.

 

Saturday night, the rain will start ot mix with snow as colder air gets wrapped into the storm system, all throughout the atmosphere, helping that rain change to snow.  It will stay all snow for Sunday and into Monday.

 

Accumulation of ice and snow is looking likely this weekend.  Some of us will see between a quarter and half an inch of ice (0.25" to 0.50") and then we'll see some rain, then a transition to snow, where we could pick up 2 to 5" of snow on top of the ice.

 

The path of the storm may change a bit as it gets closer, but we're still expecting a wintry mix at first and then a change over to snow by Sunday, which will cause travel problems.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

 

A mix of freezing drizzle or freezing rain and sleet will be with us today as a storm system moves by to our south, but it's moving just enough to the north, that we'll see the chance for a wintry mix today, into tonight and into tomorrow.  Some accumulation of ice is possible, with up to a tenth of an inch of ice.  To the south, into Iowa, some places could see up to half an inch of ice from freezing rain.  The wintry mix will start to mix with snow and change to snow as we head into Thursday.  We could see an inch or two of snowfall on top of the ice that accumulates.  There is just enough warm air in the atmosphere that we're watching for the chance for ice, with temperatures below freezing at the surface.  That's the perfect set-up for ice.

 

We'll see some flurries around on Friday, but late in the day and into Friday night, we'll see another and more powerful storm system move in and bring the chance for rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow.  This storm for the weekend looks to be more troubling.  The way it looks now is we'll see a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain on Saturday morning, changing over to rain as we head into the afternoon and then back to a mix of snow and sleet, finally changing over to all snow as we move into Sunday.  It's still a bit early to get an idea of accumulation, but some more ice and snow accumulation are certainly possible.

 

Pictures from Elmo and Cookie Monsters visit yesterday are posted on our weather Facebook page.  Kya and I are taking Brynnley to the show this morning at 10:30, so I won't be here for Midday.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

 

Another foggy start this morning, with visibility near zero at times.  And another hoar frost, which is ice crystals that stick to surfaces above the ground, mainly trees, and create a beautiful scenery.  With some sunshine as we head into the afternoon, highs will be similar to what we saw yesterday in the middle 20s. 

 

Clouds will start to move in tonight ahead of a storm system that is going to go by to our south, but there will be just enough moisture around and it will be close enough that we will see the chance for some freezing drizzle and some snow as we head into the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow, lasting into Thursday.  Some minor accumulation of ice is possible, with a glaze to maybe a tenth of an inch of ice.  To our south into central and eastern Iowa, a quarter of an inch of ice is possible.

 

Some snow flurries are possible on Friday before a bigger and more potent storm moves in for the upcoming weekend.  At this point, rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain are still possible Saturday into Sunday.  As the temperature drops as we move into later Sunday and Monday, the precipitation will change over to all snow.  This weekend storm does present the chance for some ice accumulation again and some snow as well.  At this point, it's to early to forecast amounts, but the bigger snowfall amounts from this weekend storm look to be from a line from Worthington to Mankato and points west.  This weekend storm bares watching and we'll continue to keep an eye on it, as accumulating snow and ice are possible.

 

You'll notice a different look to the 10-Day Trend.  The colored bars on the bottom indicate chances of precipitation.  The taller the bar, the better the chance for precipitation.  So, there's a better chance for precip over the weekend, compared to Friday for example.

 

On a side note:  Sesame Street Live is at the Verizon Wireless Center tonight and tomorrow.  Today on News 12 Midday: Some special guests from Sesame Street will stop by!  Tune in!!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Monday, January 18, 2010

 

A quiet weekend continues into the start of the week, with mostly to partly sunny skies.  Highs will reach the upper 20s to around 30.  We'll continue the trend of seeing clouds and fog in the overnight and morning hours and that fog will be dense at times.  Our quiet start to the week is all thanks to high pressure.  But some changes are on the way as we head into the middle and later parts of the week.

 

A low pressure system will track into the Midwest on Wednesday and Thursday, and will bring the chance for some light snow and some freezing rain.  Temperatures at the surface are going to be around 32°, but what we are really going to be watching is the temperature between 2000 and 10,000 feet above us.  The more warm air above us, the more likely we'll see freezing rain or rain.

 

Some light snow is still possible on Friday before a more potent storm moves in for the weekend, bringing another shot for some rain, some snow, some freezing rain or a combination of them all.  Again, the temperatures at the surface will be around freezing.  It will be the temperature in the upper atmosphere that we'll be watching.

 

One of our forecast models is hinting at a decent accumulation of freezing rain by Friday night.  That is the image I've included today.  It's showing around a quarter of an inch of freezing rain accumulation to the Mankato area.  Of course, this is early out and can certainly and will likely change, so this storm is something to certainly watch, as ice is much more difficult to deal with than snow. 

 

It was on this date in 1994 that Governor Arne Carlson ordered all Minnesota schools closed due to extreme cold temperatures, with strong winds causing dangerous wind chills.  Actual air temperatures were in the -30s. 

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Friday, January 15, 2010

 

Another mild start to the day with some fog and clouds again.  We'll see skies turn partly sunny later today with high temperatures warming into the lower to middle 30s.  This is a pattern that is going to repeat through the weekend and into the start of next week.

 

As we head into next week, some changes are in store.  By Wednesday and Thursday, we'll see the chance for some rain, some sleet, some snow, and maybe some freezing rain.  This looks like a little taste of what is to come as we head into next weekend, the 23rd and 24th, where the models are hinting at a variety of precipitation and a good dose of it, with the models hinting at half an inch of liquid precip.  That could be a lot of snow or it could be a lot of ice.  As I said yesterday, it's going to depend on the suface temperature and the temperature between 5,000 and 10,000 feet above us.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Thursday, January 14, 2010--updated 12:40 PM

 

I'm running out of ways to say we're starting the morning with some fog and then with sunshine this afternoon.  It's a broken record, skipping CD type of forecast.  Though, really, who can complain, after where we've been with the cold weather and all the snow, this is really a nice change of pace.

 

We'll repeat this pattern again tomorrow, but it looks like highs will be in the upper 20s to around 30.  All week, I've been putting lower to middle 30s in the forecast, but we haven't been making it.  Why you ask?  Well, everything is there, the sunshine, the mild air mass, we've just been getting burned out by the warm air, a layer of it holding up in the mid parts of the atmosphere keeping the cold air at the surface.  That's called an inversion and it's finally looking like we're breaking that pattern down.  Weather fact:  I shared this at noon today.  But, the inversion was pretty evident in a recent weather ballon launch at the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.  At 6PM Wednesday night, they launched a blaloon.  The surface temperatures was 27°.  The balloon recorded a temperatures of 58° at 4,600 feet.  So, if it wasn't for our deep snowpack, our air temperatures would easily make it into the 40s and 50s thanks to this Pacific airmass that is in place.  Darn snow!!

 

The quiet weather stays into the weekend, with highs in the lower 30s.

 

As we head into next week, we'll see some changes to the forecast.  The models have been hinting at a storm system bringing a variety of precip to us as we head into later Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  As we look at the 10-Day Trend, those chances linger into next Saturday.  It's a bit early to say for sure what kind of precip we'll see, but with temperatures at the surface around freezing, at this point, rain, snow, freezing rain and sleet are all possible.  It's all going to depend on the temperature above us, from just a few hundred feet to thousands of feet above the surface.  It's certainly something to keep an eye on!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

 

Thanks to all the viewers that have sent in their photos of the beautiful hoar frost from yesterday morning.  As we melt some snow over the next few days, we'll see fog in the mornings and that could lead to a repeat performance of the pretty scenery. 

 

Along with some fog from the melting snow, we'll see also see some slippery spots on the roads.  High temperatures are warming above average, into the lower to even middle 30s.  Our average high temperature is in the lower 20s.

 

So why didn't we warm up quickly yesterday?  We had an inversion in the atmosphere, which acts like a lid, trapping the cool air and moisture close to the surface.  If you went up about 5000 feet or so yesterday, the temperatures were much warmer than at the surface.  Typically, the air in the atmosphere cools as it rises, yesterday it warmed and acted like a lid.  Eventually, as the winds picked up yesterday, the air got stirred up enough that the inversion broke apart.

 

We're off to a warmer start this morning, so that should help lead to a warmer afternoon, with highs expected to reach the lower to middle 30s.  We'll fall again to around 20 for a low tonight as some clouds and fog develop.  We repeat this each day, with highs in the lower to middle 30s and lows around 20.

 

As we head into next week, there is starting to look like there is going to be a change in the quiet weather pattern, with the chance for some precip as we head into the middle part of the week.  Exactly what type of precip, rain, snow or a combination is still up in the air.  That's something to keep an eye on, as it could be "interesting."  It could be a lot of snow, it could be a lot of rain or that 3-letter word that starts with I and ends with E... I'm talking about ice. 

 

I'm sure most of you have heard about the earthquake in Haiti, which was a magnitude 7.  This morning, another quake, likely an aftershock of magnitude 4.5 struck the region.  For more information on earthquakes and in real-time as they happen, you can click here.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
____________________________________________________

 

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

 

The warm-up continues today as highs push into the middle 20s.  And expect the chance for some fog each morning.  But did you notice how it looked like flurries this morning?  Well, technically those weren't flurries.  They were "flakes" of frozen moisture, or frozen fog.  The atmosphere couldn't support anymore moisture, (as our humidity was at 100%), so some of it fell out and looked like flurries.  Did you also happen to notice the trees?  They are coated in a white frost-like covering, which is also a sign of freezing fog.  So, this will likely be a repeat performance this week, again with the freeze and thaw cycle each day and night.  Here's a picture I took out the back door of KEYC showing the white coating on the trees.

 

Highs will warm into the lower 30s the rest of this week and even into the week.  All thanks to a push of Pacific air which is going to surge across the country.  There has been a big dip in the jet stream over us, keeping the warm air in the West, and allowing the cold Canadian air to spill into the middle and Eastern sections of the country.  That patter is changing, and the jet stream will act more like a block of the cold air, keeping it in Canada.

 

Our average high temperature is in the lower 20s, but we're going to be warming into the lower 30s, which is going to feel pretty nice.  We'll stay quiet too, with the exception coming as we look at the 10-Day Trend.  There is a storm system in the models that bares watching, as our temperature profile still looks to be close to the freezing point.  Stay tuned!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Monday, January 11, 2010

 

Are you ready for the snow to start to melt and for temperatures to go above average?  If that's a yes, then this forecast is for you!  High temperatures today will be around 21, which is just 1 degree shy of average.  And we only warm up from there.  Tonight will be our last chilly night, with a low around 8.

 

We warm a  few more degrees for Tuesday, into the middle 20s and then we hit the lower 30s for Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Highs will be in the 20s and 30s even into next week as you can see in the 10-Day Trend.

 

With the melting snow, we'll see some re-freezing, especially at night with lows in the teens.  Along with the slippery spots, we'll see some fog too from the melting snow, mainly at night and in the morning hours.  Definately want to load up on that windshield washer fluid!!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Friday, January 8, 2010

 

We'll still see some breezy winds today, but they won't be as strong as yesterday, so some blowing snow is still possible.  An arctic area of high pressure is moving into the region, but the coldest air will be to our west, compared to our cold snap last weekend, when the high was overhead.  Highs will rise to around zero today as we see some sunshine after clouds this morning.

 

A wind chill advisory is in effect for the viewing area through midnight tonight, as wind chills may dip as low as -35 at times.

 

Tonight with clear skies, we'll bottom out in the teens below zero, with some of us dipping into the 20s below zero, especially in southwestern Minnesota.  We'll warm above zero on Saturday.  Wind Chills will be in the -30s tonight and stay in the teens and 20s below zero during the day on Saturday.

 

By Sunday, we'll see highs in the teens and then into the 20s as we head into next week, with highs going above average.  Our average high is in the lower 20s, and by Wednesday, we could be knocking on the door of 30°.

 

For a look at snowfall totals from yesterday, check out my post from yesterday.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Thursday, January 7, 2010

 

The first snowstorm of the new year didn't bring a lot of snow, but it's the strong winds that are coming with the snow storm that are blowing the light and fluffy snow around.  Visibility is being reduced to near 0 miles with winds gusting up to 40 mph.  That's causing travel to not be advised across much of the area, with the main visibility problems coming in open areas.

 

The winds will stay gusty through tonight and into tomorrow, so blowing snow will still be a problem.  This storm is also bringing cold air with it, with lows going into the teens below zero tonight and tomorrow night and highs not getting above zero for Friday.

 

We start a warming trend as we head into the weekend, with a high around 6 on Saturday.  We warm into the teens on Sunday and Monday.  Then we'll see highs in the 20s on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs actually going ABOVE average on Wednesday.

 

There is a chance for some light snow on Monday, with another little clipper moving in.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, January 6, 2009

 

A clipper system will bring some light, fluffy snow to us today into tomorrow, but with just enough moisture and the cold air, it's going to bring a decent amount of snow.  To be honest, when I looked at the models this morning, the liquid equilvalent with our temperatures today would bring us 12" of snow.  That seems a little extreme to me, so I'm going with 3 to 6" of snow, with the potential for more to the southwest of the Minnesota River and some isolated totals up to 10" not out of the question.  Again, this is going to be that light fluffy snow, so it's the kind that does pile up quickly.  This storm will also bring higher winds, so that means we'll see blowing and drifting snow, especially as we head into tonight and tomorrow. 

 

Along with the snow and the wind, this storm will bring another shot of cold air, with temperatures falling throughout the day tomorrow and into the teens below zero for Friday and Saturday mornings.  Our highs on Friday will be in the single digits below zero.  Then a warming trend starts.

 

We'll see a high around 0 on Saturday, into the teens for Sunday and near 20 by Monday and finally into the lower 20s for Tuesday with lows going above zero.  Along with the warmer temperatures, quiet weather also looks to be with us.

 

We made it to 1° above zero yesterday, ending our stretch of subzero readings.  The stretch began on New Years Eve at 8:55 PM and ended at 3:35 PM Tuesday.  That's 114 hours and 40 minutes of subzero tempertaures.  I think that's a "record" we're all willing to give up.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Tuesday, January 5, 2009

 

We made it to 1° above zero today, ending our stretch of subzero readings.  The stretch began on New Years Eve at 8:55 PM and ended at 3:35 PM Today.  That's 114 hours and 40 minutes of subzero tempertaures.  I think that's a "record" we're all willing to give up.

 

Get ready for 2 to 5" of snow starting tomorrow into Thursday and then some more cold air, with highs struggling to go above zero, lows in the teens below zero.  By next week, 20's ABOVE zero are possible. 

I'm back tomorrow, so I'll see you then!

 

Monday, January 4, 2010

 

Today is the 4th day of the new year and month and it's also our 4th day of setting new record lows in Mankato.  We're breaking those records by several degrees.  All this cold air is thanks to a strong arctic high pressure system.  The air mass has warmed a bit since it's origins in the arctic,  but with clear skies and a deep snowpack, our temperatures drop like a rock at night.

 

Highs today will warm just above zero.  We've been at or below zero since 9:00 PMon New Years Eve, now that's a long stretch of subzero temperatures!  We're back into the teens below zero again tonight.  We warm a few more degrees for Tuesday.

 

By Wednesday, another clipper like system will move in and bring the chance for light snow on Wednesday into Thursday.  We could pick up 2 or 3" of new snow.  Then behind that system, another push of cold air.

 

Highs will struggle to make it above zero on Friday and Saturday, with lows in the teens below zero.  Indications are by Sunday, we'll warm to around 10.  Long range indications are for some wamer weather as we head into next week, so we'll cross our fingers!!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Friday, January 1, 2010

 

Happy New Year...and to be honest, I typed 2009 for the date.  2010 is going to take some time to get used to.  We're starting the New Year off with some bitterly cold temperatures.  A Wind Chill Advisory and Wind Chill Warning are in effect for the viewing area through tomorrow for wind chills as cold as -40.

 

We're also looking at the possibility of some record lows.  In Mankato, I'm forecasting a low of -20 tonight, which would break a record of -14 set in 1993.  We'll also likely set a record Sunday morning.  The current record is -12 set in 1991.  My forecast is for -15.  All this cold air is thanks to a strong arctic high pressure system.  The air mass has warmed a bit since it's origins in the arctic.  With clear skies and a deep snowpack, temperatures will struggle to warm over the weekend.

 

It looks like we'll stay below zero for highs this weekend as well, around -8 for Saturday and -2 for Sunday.  Our lows stay below zero right through the upcoming week. 

 

We "warm" all the way to 10 on Wednesday with the chance for some light snow, otherwise the forecast will be quiet and cold!

 

For a look back at the weather extremes of 2009, check my post below from yesterday!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Thursday, December 31, 2009

 

What a month December has been with lots of snow and cold temperatures.  We'll only see highs in the single digits today with a partly to mostly cloudy sky.  The cold air sticks around as we head into the new year, with lows going into the teens below zero and highs struggling to get above zero this weekend.  In fact, some record lows are possible on Saturday and Sunday morning.  Talk about a great way to start a new year!!

 

The weather will stay quiet as we head into 2010 as well, with sunny but cold days.  It looks like we'll start to warm up as we head into next week.

 

Yesterday I started looking back at the weather of 2009 and will share some highlights.  It was certainly an interesting year, with a relatively quiet severe weather season.  As we know, we had a pretty dry summer and even into September, but a really rainy October.  In October, we picked up 6.12" of precipitation, with 2.25" of that coming on the first of October. 

 

Even with a snowy December, we're going to end 2009 below average for precipitation, with being nearly 6" below average.  As far as snowfall, we picked up 33" of snow in December, with the most coming on Christmas Eve with 7".  We didn't get any snowfall in November and picked up an inch in October.  We had 2" of snow in April.

 

As far as temperatures for 2009, they were certainly all over the place!!  January 2009 was cold, with 3 days seeing highs below zero and 24 mornings with lows below zero.  The coldest temp in 2009 was a morning low of -24 on both the 15th and 16th of January.  February turned out to be a much warmer month, with highs in the 30s and 40s for a good chunk of the month.  Our first 80° day was in April, on the 23rd when we hit 86.  We saw a warm May, with two days in a row with highs in the middle to upper 90s.  In fact, the warmest temp of the whole year was on May 19th when we hit 97.    There were 2 more days of 90s in June and then that was it! 

 

We only had 9 days in July and 9 in August that were in the 80s.  The average high temperature forJuly and August was 75.  In fact, there were more days in 2009 that were warm than were cold.  128 days of the year we had highs in the 70s, 80s or 90s.  Only 68 days saw highs below 30... that certainly puts the stigma that Minnesota is cold to rest!

 

Here's a look back at some notable weather events for the last year in Minnesota. Here's a look at some notable weather events from the past decade in Minnesota.

 

Have a great and safe New Year.  There are no morning cut-ins or a midday tomorrow, but I'll see you at 6 & 10 on New Years Day!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

 

I'm back from a mini vacation and finding as if it's my first day ever here, funny how we forget things so easily!  I've been spending my days watching Sesame Street and not using my alarm clock.

 

After picking up 22" of snow last week, we're looking at the chance for some more snow today, with around 1" of accumulation, with some of us seeing up to 2".  Today will be the warmest of the next several days.  Highs will be in the lower 20s, which will feel down right tropical compared to the next several days.

 

A cold area of high pressure is going to settle in out of Canada and will bring highs in the single digits and lows going below zero.

 

In fact, as we head into the first weekend of the New Year, lows will be around 10 below.  It will also be quiet as we head into the New Year, with mostly to partly sunny skies, although it will be chilly.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Saturday, December 26, 2009

 

Here are snowfall reports from December 23 to December 25.  Looks like Waterville is the "winner" in our viewing area, with 21" of snow, Spencer and Worthington had 20".  Fairmont picked up 16".  In Mankato, though it seems like more, we got 12".

 

Southcentral Minnesota

Northern Iowa

Southwestern Minnesota and NW Iowa

 

See you on Wednesday!
Mitch

 

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

 

Here'a look back at a 2-day chat regarding the storm.  A regular blog post is below the chat window.. 

 

 

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

 

Well, its pretty much set in stone, with heavy accumulating snow headed our way.  It's going to be a wet, heavy snow, so take it easy shoveling.  The latest indications are that the track of the storm may be more to the south and east than it was looking even early this morning, so we have have to adjust snowfall totals as we move along.

 

But as far as it goes, there's a good shot at double digit snowfall totals across the viewing area, with the heaviest bands in the western parts of our viewing area where some places could see up to 24" of snow (That's 2 feet!)  No matter how much snow we do end up with, it's going to cause difficult if not impossible travel.  The winds are going to pick-up with this storm and will cause some blowing snow.

 

There is the slight chance for some freezing drizzle through early afternoon and then some sleet and snow is possible.  But again, if the storm system tracks more to the south and east, the warm air in the atmosphere wouldn't make it here, taking that chance of a wintry mix out of the forecast.

 

A winter storm warning is in effect for our whole viewing area, as well as good parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.  This storm is going to be a long duration, lasting into Saturday and wide reaching.  If you do travel, make sure you take it easy, leave plenty of time and have an emergency kit!

I'm off starting tomorrow through next Tuesday.  I'll see you back here on Wednesday, December 30th.

 

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

 

Things are still in line for a big winter storm, starting tomorrow and lasting into early on Saturday.  The track of the storm is starting to move a little more west, meaning the heaviest bands of snow may be pushed further west, across western and southwester Minnesota into South Dakota.  As the track looks like it might be a little closer to us, that may mean the chance for some sleet mixing in the with snow. 

 

This can all certainly change as each model gets updated, it will be come clearer to exactly what is going to happen.  Double digit snowfall totals are still quite likely in our viewing area, exactly where is still to early to say.

 

It's a good bet that 6 " to 12" if not more will fall in our viewing area and there are indication of some minor ice accumulation.  The sleet and freezing rain is possible later Wednesday evening into early on Thursday.  The precipitation then changes back over to snow for later on Thursday and into Friday.  This storm looks to move slowly, so this is going to be a long duration snow and ice storm.

 

Again, and I can't say this enough, things can certainly change.  A shift in the track of the storm can greatly impact the forecast and change it.  This is how things are looking.

 

As for timing:  it looks like the snow will start around Noon tomorrow and last into Saturday morning.  The best chance for some sleet mixing in will be in the evening hours on Wednesday and then into early on Christmas Eve.  Eventually the winds within the storm switch to the north, allowing cold air to be in place at all levels of the atmosphere, giving us all snow.

 

I'm certainly not trying to cause panic or alarm anyone, I just want to give you as much information I can based off of what I know and give you my best forecast.  Can it all change, you bet, but with lots of people traveling over the next few days, giving everyone plenty of information is a good thing.

 

Keep checking back as we get more information!

 

Monday, December 21, 2009

 

Winter officially begins at 11:47 AM today and while it already looks like winter, it's going to keep looking like winter, right as we head to the Christmas Holiday. 

 

Another clipper, similar to the one from yesterday, will bring the chance for 1-3" of snow today into tonight.  In Southwestern Minnesota and northwestern Iowa, as much as 4" of snow is possible.  Highs today will be in the lower to middle 20s and that's where we'll be pretty much all week.

 

Cloudy skies and flurries will be with us for Tuesday before the big storm gets here.  The snow will start to develop on Wednesday and last into early on Saturday.  This storm is going to be wide reaching and will have impacts on travel.

 

The low pressure system looks to track across northern Missouri into southern Iowa, which would put the heaviest bands of snow in our area.  Much closer to the track of the storm, freezing rain, sleet, rain and thunderstorms are possible.  If your travels take you to Iowa, Illinois or Missouri, that's where ice will be a concern, before it changes over to snow.

 

This storm is still in the Pacific Northwest, but as it moves across the Rockies, it will start to draw in some colder air.  As it reaches the Texas & Oklahoma panhandles, it will start its turn northward and again, head over northern Missouri and southern Iowa.

 

As far as snowfall amounts, it's still a bit early to pin them down, but there is a potential for a foot of snow across our area.  One of our forecast models hints at 18-20" TOTAL from today through noon on Friday.  Again, the path of the storm can change, but it's looking more and more likely the path I've mentioned above is what will happen and we'll be in line fore a big snowfall.

 

The graphic I've included shows accumulated snowfall from one of our forecast models.  It shows total snowfall from today through noon on Thursday.  While it's hard to see, it places much of our viewing area in the 18" to 20" band.

 

I know the timing of it couldn't be more unfortunate.  I had travel plans myself this weekend and I'm already making alternative arangements.  My suggestion is you do the same, as we continue to fine tune that forecast.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Sunday, December 20, 2009

 

Good Sunday evening. Nathan and I chatted this afternoon for a while about the upcoming storm for later this week and I'm sure everyone else is wondering about the storm for Christmas too. 

 

But first it looks like we'll have to deal with some snow tomorrow night into Tuesday, where another inch or two is possible from another clipper-like system. Much remains up-in-the air about the storm for Christmas, but it does look like a long duration winter storm, meaning it looks to start sometime on Wednesday and continue into Christmas Day.

 

Amounts are still a bit up in the air, but this storm does have the *POTENTIAL* for bringing a foot of snow to our region... so stay tuned. I wouldn't be surprised is snowfall amounts rival what we got from the big storm last week, if not higher.

 

To our south, across the southern 2/3's of Iowa, precipitation type will be a concern, rain, snow, sleet, freezing rain, cats, dogs... you get the picture.  Things will start to come much clearer, especially starting tomorrow.

 

I'll see you tomorrow morning!

 

Friday, December 18, 2009--Updated 11:15 AM

 

The latest forecast model is in and the track of next week's storm is a little further south than it was this morning.  What does that mean?  Well, at this point, nothing really.  The storm is still developing in the Pacific.  Over the weekend, it will move into the Pacific Northwest, then on Monday will roll across the Rockies.  By Tuesday, the low pressure will be in the plains states and then move into the Midwest for mid and late week next week.

 

What we do know right now is that somewhere in the Midwest is going to get a decent snowfall.  The exact path, timing and amounts are still up for grabs.  The further north the storm moves, the better chance we'll see for some "big" snowfall.  The further south the actual storm goes, the less snow we'll see.  I'm not trying to scare everyone into panic, just want eveyone to be advised of the possibility of travel problems as we head towards Christmas.  I'll keep an eye on things over the weekend and will post any new information.

 

Original Post from 7:00 this morning:  Another mild morning with temperatures in the teens.  We'll see a partly to mostly cloudy sky with some haze and fog.  There is an air quality alert for today across the southern 2/3's of Minnesota because of the stagnant air that is in place due to our lack of wind.

 

Temperatures will stay in the 20s today and right into Sunday.  Saturday will be quiet, but Sunday will bring the chance for some light snow, around an inch of accumulation possible.  It's next week that brings the potential for some more significant snow.

 

the forecast models are all in agreement on the fact that there will be a snowstorm, it's just a matter of exactly when, where and how much.  The models this morning are putting the storm further to the north than they were yesterday.  With winter storms, the heaviest snow bands are usually between 100 and 300 miles to the north of the track of the storm.  So, the farther north the track of the storm, the higher the chances for us to see some significant snow.  Of course, this is still a ways out, so things can change and likely will.  Stay tuned for the latest forecasts as a snowstorm will certainly have impacts on holiday travel.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Thursday, December 17, 2009

 

We're waking up this morning warmer than it was yesterday, in the double digits above zero with wind chills above zero too!  We'll see highs climb into the 20s for today.

 

We stay in the 20s through the weekend with some flurries possible on Friday and Saturday, with a little bit better chance for some light snow on Sunday, which could bring an inch or two.

 

The forecast for next week continues to look a little more interesting.  We're  looking for some light snow potential on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The models have changed a bit from yesterday and actually strengthened the storm systems, so the 10-Day Trend now includes the chance for some snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  As I said, the storm system has actually strengthened over the past few outputs of the model, so there is a pretty good chance for some accumulating snow in the central US for mid to late week next week.  Exactly where the heaviest snow will be is still up for grabs.  As of this mornings model, the heaviest snow looked to be south of here, into southern and eastern Iowa.  Of course, this is a long way out and can and will certainly change, so stay tuned for the latest.

 

The other story with this model is it's bringing in MUCH colder air after Christmas.  That's also something worth watching.  This model I'm talking about is called the GFS model (Global Forecast Model) and it acutally did pretty well with the timing and snowfall amounts from our recent Blizzard, so it's worth watching!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, December 16, 2009

 

Temperatures are much warmer this morning, around zero.  We dipped to -4 in Mankato and then temps remained steady and rose a few degrees just like we talked about yesterday.  And we'll continue to warm up today, into the teens with mostly sunny skies.

 

That warming trend will continue into tomorrow, with partly sunny skies and highs in the middle 20s, which is fairly close to average for this time of the year.  We stay in the 20s for Friday and Saturday.

 

Along with those temperatures in the 20s, we'll see the chance for some flurries or light snow.  There is a little bit better chance for some light snow on Sunday with a high around 20.

 

As we start the first few days of next week, temperatures will be in the teens.  Looking at the 10-Day Trend, we'll see temperatures warm back to around 20 for Christmas.

 

For those of you that entered our December snowfall contest, we're keeping a running total on our website.  Check it out here!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

 

We're waking up with lows in the single digits below zero and wind chills in the teens and 20s below zero.  While we'll see sunshine it'll still be cold today, with a high around 5.  Wind Chills will even stay in the teens below zero through the day. 

 

As this cold arctic high pressure slides to the south and east, our winds will switch to the south, and that will help us warm up for the rest of the week.  Highs will get into the teens for Wednesday.

 

By Thursday and Friday, our highs will be in the lower 20s, which will be much closer to average for this time of the year. 

 

Along with the warmer air, there is the chance for some light snowfall on Friday and over the weekend.  This doesn't look to be anything major, but certainly some improvement with highs in the 20s. 

 

For those of you that entered our December snowfall contest, we're keeping a running total on our website.  Check it out here!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Monday, December 14, 2009

 

A little bit of freezing drizzle on Saturday night and now we're waking up with a little bit of light snow, with a half an inch to around an inch.  While it's not a lot of snow, it is causing a few slippery spots. 

 

We're also gearing up for another push of arctic air, as a cold high pressure system moves out of Canada.  Temperatures will slide a few degrees as we head into the afternoon and with clearing skies tonight, we'll fall into the single digits to near 10 below zero.  Wind chills will be in the 20s below zero.  Even with sunshine, highs only warm into the single digits for Tuesday.

 

We'll be back into the teens for Wednesday and then back into the 20s for Thursday and into Friday and Saturday.  There is the chance for some light snow on Friday and Saturday. 

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Friday, December 11, 2009

 

Lots of sunshine for today and that sunshine lasts into tomorrow too!  The good news, along with that sunshine, we'll see temperatures warm up even more. 

 

For tonight, we'll see a mostly clear sky with lows around 5.  But as a warm front pushes in, that will help temps rise into the 20s for both Saturday and Sunday.  While we'll see the sunshine on Saturday, by Saturday night, there is the chance for a little bit of a wintry mix with just enough moisture around and just enough warm air, especially in the upper atmoshphere.

 

By Sunday, we'll see mostly cloudy skies and then a chance for some light snow late Sunday into Monday.  This next little system could bring an inch or two of snow to us.  Behind it, colder air again, with lows going below zero and highs in the lower teens.

Temperatures moderate back a bit closer to average by later next week. 

 

So, with the sunshine, you would think our temperatures would warm up much more than the teens and 20s that they did today.  But the reason they didn't is the snow cover.

 

The snow acts like a giant reflecting blanket and reflects the radiation from the sun.  The color white reflects 85-90% of the energy from the sun.  It's the ground that actually warms the air, the sun doesn't do it directly.  Regular ground cover reflects only 20% of the Sun's energy.  The "process" of reflection is called albedo.  Snow or anything white, has a much higher albedo than the ground, or something black.  Ocean Water reflects 10% of the sun's energy.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Thursday, December 10, 2009

 

Nice to see some sunshine for today, although it was a bit on the chilly side.  We woke up this morning with lows in the single digits to around 10 below zero.  Wind chills maxed out in the middle 20s below zero.  We'll be below zero once again tonight, with lows around -5 and a few clouds.  Since the winds won't be as strong, wind chills may get to near -20 overnight. 

 

On Friday, some clouds around again, but the start of a push of warmer air will mean highs in the teens to even near 20 for some of us.  Speaking of 20s, they look certain on Saturday, after a warm front pushes in.

 

As the warmer air moves in, some melting snow is possible and that means the potential for some fog.  Trailing behind the warm front is another push of cooler air, with highs going back into the teens by Sunday and into next week.

 

Along with that push of cooler air, some light snow or flurries are possible, especially Sunday and Monday.

 

As far as average temperatures go, we typically are in the middle to upper 20s, so as you can see, we're going to be below average with the exception of Saturday, when we get fairly close to average.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

 

Now that the snow is over, we're still dealing with blowing snow, big snow drifts and now bitterly cold temps.  For that reason, the entire KEYC viewing area is under a Wind Chill Advisory through Thursday morning for wind chills into the -30s.  

 

The skies are starting to clear out and with the fresh snowpack, temperatures will continue to drop to near -10 tonight.  Even with sunshine on Thursday, highs will only get into the single digits above zero.

 

We stay on the cool side right into the weekend, with highs only in the upper teens.  Lows stay in the single digits.

 

As we head into next week, there is a chance for some snow on Monday and Tuesday and hints at another push of frigid air as we head into midweek next week.

 

Snowfall from this blizzard ranged from 13" in Alberta Lea to only 3" of snow in Morton.  Here are some snowfall reports. 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Tuesday, December 8, 2009--4:30 update

 

Nearly the entire KEYC viewing area is under a blizzard warning, which I've never seen in my 4+ years in Minnesota.  In fact, the entire state of Iowa is under a Blizzard Warning, something else I've never seen.  Snowfall totals still look in line the forecast, with some higher amounts.

 

Travel will certainly become more difficult tonight and overnight and into tomorrow morning.  I'm sure there will be numerous school announcements tomorrow morning, so stick with us.  Nathan Harrington is in the next few morning as I'm working at night.

 

Tuesday, December 8, 2009-- Midday update

 

Still looking for a good band of 6"+ of snowfall.  The snowfall forecast from this morning is still good, with the heaviest snows to the south and east of a line from St. James to the Twin Cities.  Lesser amounts of snow to the northwest. 

 

The blizzard warning has been extended into northern Iowa.  The strongest winds pick-up later this evening and continue into tomorrow.  The heaviest snows will end around midday tomorrow, but light to moderate snow still possible.  Then get ready for dangerously cold wind chills, into the -30 range.

 

The latest school and other cancellations and delays will scroll at the top of the page and you can sign up for free email alerts here.

 

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

 

We're already seeing light snow as I write this (6:10 AM)  and the snow will just continue to intensify as we head into the afternoon and into the evening and overnight hours.  The heaviest snow looks to start to fall after 6:00 tonight.  That's also when the strongest winds are expect, especially into the overnight hours and tomorrow.  The actual low pressure system that is responsible for our big snowfall is still in the Four Corners Region.  As the low pressure system gets closer, that's when the wind really starts to pick-up, gusting to 40 to 50 mph.

 

By 6:00 this evening, we could have 2 to 4" of snow on the ground and as the heavier snow starts, 1 to 2" per hour is not out of the question.  Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories are out for today through Thursday.  The Blizzard and Winter Storm Warnings go into effect at noon.

 

The winds will cause blowing and drifting of snow, which will cause reduced visibility, to near zero at times.  It will cause major drifting of snow, with some road closures possible.  Certainly if you don't have to travel, it's best to stay home.

 

The heaviest snow is expect to fall to the south and east of a line from St. James to the Twin Cities, where 8" or more is possible.  I'm expecting 6-12" of snow in this area.  To the north and west of that line, 4 to 8" of snow is possible.  There are certainly areas that could see upwards of a foot of snow.  It is going to be difficult to get an accurate measure, as the winds will blow it around.  Some places in central and eastern Iowa could see more than 15" of snowfall.  This is an increase in the snowfall forecast from yesterday. 

 

Behind this storm system, much colder air, with lows going below zero and highs in the single digits and teens above zero.

Keep checking back, as I'll update anything new.    Dont' forget, you can get free school alert emails by clicking on this link.  Stay safe!!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Monday, December 7, 2009-- 5:30 PM Update

 

I hinted at it earlier today that I wouldn't be surprised to see some blizzard warnings and winter storm warnings.  Well, that's just what happened.  The Blizzard Watch has been replaced by a Blizzard Warning and the Winter Storm Watch by a Winter Storm Warning.  This morning, when I first got to work, I thought we might see 3 to 6" of snow.  After about an hour, I changed it to 4 to 8."  For Midday, when the newest info came in, I changed my forecast to 5" to 10" and that still looks like a good possibility, with some isolated higher amounts not out of the question.  The heaviest snows will start into the afternoon hours Tuesday, lasting into the overnight hours into Wednesday morning.  The winds are still going to pick up with this storm and that means blowing, drifting snow and poor visibility.  If you have to travel, leave PLENTY of extra time and take it easy.  Though the best thing to do is to avoid travel.  I'm sure we'll hear about some closing of roads due to drifting and accidents. 

 

I plan on heading into work a little early tomorrow, just to have plenty of time to work on the forecast and graphics.  I don't anticipate any school delays or cancellations in the morning, but that will be a different story on Wednesday.  Still expecting very chilly air towards the end of the week.

See you tomorrow morning!  Mitch

 

Monday, December 7, 2009--Midday Update

 

Had to update snowfall totals.  Storm continues to trend northwest-ward.  Heaviest snowfall typically falls 150 miles to the northwest of the storm.  So, the heavier snowbands are getting closer to us.  Again, it will be windy with this storm, causing blowing and drifting of snow.  Some roads may be drifted shut or even closed due to accidents.  Not to cause panic, but if you don't have to travel, don't!  It's better to be safe.

 

Monday, December 7, 2009

 

We're gearing up for our first big snowstorm of the season and it's going to bring quite a punch.  But first we have to get through today.  No problems, we'll see mostly cloudy skies with a few flurries and a high around 20.  Tonight, the clouds stay put with a low around 10.

 

The storm is still in the southwest, gathering strength and it will continue to do so as it heads our way, drawing in some moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and will combine with the cold air that's inplace, further helping amplify the snowfall.

 

It looks like the first snowflakes will be in the air by 5 or 6:00 tomorrow morning.  The snow will intensify through the day.  The wind will be the other story with this storm, gusting up to 40 mph or higher, causing blowing and drifting of snow, with will cause poor visbility and poor travel conditions.

 

For that reason, a Blizzard Watch is in effect for Blue Earth, Watonwan, Waseca, Steele, Martin, Faribault and Freeborn counties.  That goes into effect at noon tomorrow and lasts into Wednesday.  I would not be surprised to see that upgraded to a Blizzard Warning.  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Redwood, Renville, Brown, Nicollet, Sibley, McLeod, LeSueur and all of our viewers in northern Iowa.  The rest of the viewing area is under a Winter Weather Advisory, that includes Cottonwood, Jackson, Murray and Nobles counties. 

 

The further north and west in the viewing area you are, the less snow.  The further east and south, the more snow.  It looks like a good chunk of the viewing area will see 3" or more, with the eastern half of the viewing area getting as much as 4-8" of snow. 

 

If you think that's not enough snow, head into eastern and central Iowa, where a foot or more of snow is possible. 

 

Behind this storm, much colder, with highs in the lower teens and lows below and above zero!

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Friday, December 4, 2009

 

Now not only does it feel like December outside, it looks like December.  Yesterday's light snow brought anywhere from a dusting to 2" to even a report of 5" of snow in Comfrey.  Between an inch and an inch and  half fell in Mankato.  The only big story, wind chills in the single digits below zero this morning.  The clouds cleared out overnight and that allowed our temperatures to drop, thanks to the clear skies and snow as well. 

 

We'll see some sunshine this morning, but the clouds will move back in and again, some light snow or flurries are possible.  Highs will only top out around 20 today.  The clouds will start to break up as we move through the overnight hours with lows around 10.

 

Saturday will be our bright and warm spot, with highs around 30 and mostly sunny skies.  The "warm" weather doesn't stick around all that long.  A low pressure system will move across central and northern Iowa on Sunday into Monday, which will bring the chance for some light snow with highs in the lower to middle  20s.  Some minor accumulations are possible from this storm.

 

A bigger and potential more impressive storm is expected to move into the midwest Tuesday into Wednesday.  While the path of the storm can certainly change, right now it looks like it will develop over southeastern Colorado and the panhandle of Oklahoma and move across Iowa, ending up around Chicago by Wednesday.  This puts us in the path for some snow, exactly how much is still yet to be determined.  If the storm moves further south, our chances for snow decrease.  If it moves more north, our chances increase.  So, its something worth watching.  Keep checking back for the forecast over the weekend and we'll have a very good idea what to expect on Monday.

 

As far as the warm-up we were hoping for, doesn't look like it's going to be as warm.  With snow on the ground and the potential for more, that will hold temperatures back a bit.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Thursday, December 3, 2009

 

A dusting to a trace of snow this morning after some light snow and flurries.  We'll continue to see light snow and flurries today, into tonight and even tomorrow.  The clouds will hang on as well.  All this again thanks to that large low pressure system over Canada.  High temperatures will remain in the 20s for today and again for Friday.

By Saturday, we'll see more sunshine and highs around 30.  We're watching a storm system that will bring the chance for some measurable snow as we head into Sunday and Monday.  The forecast models have been going back and forth on this and now it appears as though we'll see some accumulation from this storm.

 

Temperatures remain in the 20s for highs right through the part of next week, but as I said yesterday, it looks like towards the end of next week, we get back closer to 30°. 

 

The models are showing a large storm system moving across the country mid to late week next week.  It's exact location is still up in the air, but the way the models are showing now, it's close enough to put the chance for snow in the forecast for Wednesday.  This is something to keep an eye on, so for now, we'll just leave it at a chance of snow on Wednesday.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

 

A large scale low pressure system in Canada and a big dip in the jet stream mean colder air for us.  Temperatures will stay in the 20s right into the weekend and even into next week, with a little bit of moderation on Sunday.

 

That low pressure system will wrap some moisture around it, so we'll see the chance for some light snow or flurries over the next few days.  The main storm systems will go well to our south, across the southern and southeastern US and then into the northeast.

 

This pattern looks to break up a bit as we head into later next week.  So while we're seeing some December chill, it doesn't look like it's going to stick around all month.  For more on the expected winter temperature outlook, check out my post from yesterday.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________

 

Tuesday, December 1, 2009

 

We ended November on a mild note and we're starting December on a mild one as well.  November was a very mild month, with highs above average nearly all month long.  In fact, for the entire month, the average high was 50.7°.  During a "normal" November, the monthly average high temperature is 43°.  We saw mild nights too.  The other notable thing about November, we did not see any measurable snowfall, just a few flurries.  But that will change as we head into December.

 

We'll see mostly to partly sunny skies today with highs around 50.  Then, the changes begin.  Temperatures are going to go below average for a change, starting tomorrow and lasting into next week.  We'll see highs around 30 for Wednesday and then only in the 20s for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  A cold low pressure system is moving in, bringing that cold air.  But its also bringing clouds and with those clouds, there will be the chance for some light snow or flurries.

 

There is a little bit better chance for seeing some light snow as we head into next week, with temperatures looking to stay in the 20s.

 

We've talked about it before, as this winter is expected to be an El Nino Winter, which typically means warmer than average temperatures.  It's still shaping up that way, though it won't feel like it the next few days.  The winter forecast from the Climate Prediction Center has us in a 40% to 50% chance of seeing above average temperatures.  Again, while it won't feel like it in the next few days, we're talking about a 3 month average, so there are bound to be periods of chilly weather.

 

As I said above, today is the first day of Meteorological winter.  We tend to chunk the seasons into 3 month blocks.  December, January and February are considered winter.  March, April and May are spring.  You get the idea.  Astronomical winter begins on the 21st at 11:47 AM.

 

Weather or Not, I'm Meteorologist Mitch Keegan
_____________________________________________________