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Analysis: Just how will the COVID-19 recession affect EU-UK trade discussions?

What followed of protracted discussion and animosity — painted a picture of a nation utterly divided. However, a deal was eventually reached and the United Kingdom did depart on January 31 this season.

However, although the UK has settled its divorce, it stays in a transition phase before the end of this season. Annually in which it has to abide by the principles of registration while enjoying the rights. Finally, however, the transition period is all about attaining an organized settlement on which the future relationship will be.

That, nevertheless, all seems in doubt. Talks seem to have stalled.

He reasoned that the discussions will “go into the wire” from the fall, including, “I’m disappointed with the united kingdom position.” Either side would have to agree with the end of the month to expand the transition period with a couple of years. Britain has repeatedly stated no. It now appears likely that any arrangement will return to more crunch discussions after this season, likely involving individual leaders. Some have reasoned it is just too late and a no-deal depart remains not only the potential but likely outcome.

Coronavirus has not helped. Additionally, there’s been frustration on both sides they have never been able to meet in person. Analysts have indicated it is nigh on impossible to perform comprehensive, complicated talks through video conferencing instead of face to face.

If a deal isn’t reached, a few are severely concerned about the outcome of a double financial whammy. Europe later this season ought to be recovering from the deepest recession in nearly a century, caused by national lockdowns. Some fear this, already injured, the EU will be struck with another financial blow from a tough Brexit. The UK remains a significant trading partner.

For many nations, the issue is more intense. Diplomats in Brussels are currently expressing concern that the $750 billion retrieval fund hasn’t taken into consideration a tough Brexit.

In an EU diplomats’ meeting a week, Belgium contended that the European Commission’s recovery finance suggestions failed to take adequate account of the financial threat posed by Brexit. Ireland suggested a Brexit jolt may have to be hauled into the EU’s wider debate on the restoration finance and coming seven-year budget, diplomats told the Financial Times.

The danger of the EU failing to achieve a trade deal with all the UK is quite real. It would increase the financial distress that the continent faces. The issue for Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron as well as many others, is how far are they ready to proceed to accommodate British requirements. Is a poor Brexit deal greater than more economical carnage?

In case you’ve missed the Brexit play in recent months, then do not worry, that the show is still operating. There’s a lot more to come along with the upcoming episodes are very likely to be back creating news shortly.